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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.